Earl
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Permalink Reply by Zen Master on -
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Permalink Reply by Wheeler on -
THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB...WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER.
HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 116 KT...WHICH WAS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM
THE SFMR WERE UNDER 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO
110 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
EARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT. FOR THE NEXT 36 OR
SO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE
CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE
CENTER OFFSHORE. THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM. ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE
HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A
GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS
EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE. SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
THIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.
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Permalink Reply by CartMan! on -
WOW!!!
WHEELER types like a MUTHAFIRKA
way too much info for me to digest at once, what a conundrum??
meanwhile.............
.......
Earl the Pearl
GOD I HATE NEW YORK TEAMS!!
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Permalink Reply by Zen Master on
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Are you a Sea Dogs fan? Do you enjoy watching Double A baseball games in torrential rain and wind?
If so, you're in luck.
The Portland Sea Dogs are giving away tickets for their game with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats on Friday night to anyone named Earl.
To take advantage of the offer, people named Earl can contact the Sea Dogs ticket office at 207-879-9500. If your your name is Earl, you'll get one free ticket in either reserved or general admission seating. The game is scheduled for 7 p.m. at Hadlock Field in Portland.
Proper identification is, of course, required.
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Permalink Reply by Beasley on -
Erle Stanley Gardner, author of the "Perry Mason" series of novels. (Odd spelling of "Erle" is correct.)
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Permalink Reply by Wheeler on
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An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft reported 140 kt winds
at 700 mb in the northeastern eyewall. An eye dropsonde reported a
surface pressure of 929 mb with a wind of 25 kt...suggesting a
central pressure near 928 mb. Based on this...the initial
intensity is increased to 125 kt. Earl is likely near peak
intensity at this time...as the eyewall convection is becoming a
little less organized in satellite imagery.
The initial motion is 330/16. There is little change to either the
forecast philosophy of the track forecast for the first 48 hr.
Earl should turn northward and north-northeastward as it rounds the
end of the subtropical ridge and enters the westerlies. The track
model guidance is tightly clustered around this solution...and the
new track is down the middle of the cluster. After 48 hr...the
guidance has shifted to the left due to changes in the interaction
of Earl with a strong westerly trough during extratropical
transition. The 48-72 hr track has been shifted to the left...but
still lies on the right side of the guidance envelope.
The intensity guidance suggests Earl should maintain its current
intensity for 12 hr or so. After that...increasing vertical wind
shear and motion over decreasing sea surface temperatures should
cause steady weakening. Extratropical transition should begin at
about 48 hr and be complete by 72 hr...with the remnants of Earl
being absorbed into a larger baroclinic low by 96 hr.
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